Chokepoint Data — the Strait of Hormuz crisis, computed

Prediction-market scoreboard

Every resolved Hormuz market, scored against what happened. Brier = mean squared error of the daily YES price (0 is perfect). Survivorship caveat: only markets that have already resolved are scorable, and while the strait stays closed a dated reopen market can only die NO — the hindsight benchmark is unbeatable by construction, which is part of the point.

Market	Life	Open	Peak	Final	Result	Brier

About & contact

An independent, data-first record of the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis: every number on this site is computed from public sources and rebuilt weekly, with methods and caveats published alongside.

Questions, corrections, or data we're missing: hello@chokepointdata.com.

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Method & caveats

Transits are AIS-observed daily transit calls for the Strait of Hormuz from IMF PortWatch (sources: Kpler; UN Global Platform; IMF PortWatch), published weekly with a several-day lag. During this crisis, GPS jamming, AIS spoofing and dark sailings mean every count is a lower bound on real traffic — PortWatch itself flags this. Iran-linked dark-fleet movements have always been largely invisible to AIS.

Brent is the daily Europe Brent spot price (FOB) from FRED (DCOILBRENTEU), which lags a few business days. Reactions: “+1d” compares the last close before the event with the first close on or after it; “+7d” with the last close within seven calendar days. Transit deltas compare mean daily transits in the seven days before the event against the seven days from the event day onward. With events this clustered, single-event attribution is genuinely hard — treat reactions as descriptive, not causal proof.

Events are hand-curated with sources; the seed archive is straits.live’s CC0 event data, independently re-verified.

Prediction markets: YES-probability histories from the public Polymarket and Kalshi market-data APIs (daily closes; Kalshi no-trade days use the bid–ask midpoint). The Kalshi closure market resolved YES on Mar 10, 2026 and is no longer listed in their current API; its history is recovered from their legacy v1 endpoints. Market prices are traders’ probabilities, not ours.

Trump posts are Truth Social statuses from CNN’s public archive (millisecond UTC timestamps), filtered to strait-related keywords; markers cluster nearby posts (the badge is the count) and link to the original post. Portrait: official White House photo, public domain. Nothing here is investment advice.

What actually moved oil prices

Method & caveats