tag:chokepointdata.com,2026:feed 2026-10-13T13:42:00Z Chokepoint Data tag:chokepointdata.com,2026:analysis/2026-10-13-bypass-the-public-data-cannot-see 2026-10-13T13:42:00Z

The free data that shows Hormuz shipping collapsing has lost sight of the route around it: Saudi Arabia's Red Sea terminals vanished from it the day after the Houthis hit two Saudi tankers.

tag:chokepointdata.com,2026:event/2026-10-10-houthi-missile-kills-12-at-riyadh-airport-saudi-arabia-says- 2026-10-10T12:00:00Z

A Houthi missile struck King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh on Saturday 10 October, killing 12 people and wounding 309, Saudi Arabia's civil aviation authority said; India's embassy later reported a 13th death. Airport operations were suspended, and a notice to air missions later indicated the airport would stay closed until at least 17 October. The Saudi-led coalition called the attack a 'full-fledged war crime' and vowed to respond, and President Trump said the United States was weighing whether to join strikes on the Houthis.

tag:chokepointdata.com,2026:event/2026-10-07-tanker-attacks-hit-wartime-weekly-high-sources-say-irgc-vows 2026-10-07T12:00:00Z

Reuters, citing three maritime security sources, reported at least 12 attacks on oil, LNG and LPG tankers around the strait in the week of 28 September-5 October, the most in any week since the war began; IMO data showed nine incidents that week. Mohammadreza Naqdi, an adviser to the IRGC commander, told Fars that 'illegal' routes, referring to the southern passage along Oman's coast, would soon be closed. UKMTO reported a tanker hit by multiple projectiles off northern Qatar, about 500 km west of the strait, with casualties.

tag:chokepointdata.com,2026:analysis/2026-10-03-four-closes-four-reversals 2026-10-03T19:22:00Z

The last four official closes alternated in direction, each moving at least 2.9 percent, while the same number of ships went through Hormuz as the week before.

tag:chokepointdata.com,2026:analysis/2026-10-02-list-became-target-list 2026-10-02T20:32:00Z

The strait authority's eight earlier announcements threatened fees, fines, detention and the loss of insurance; this morning's says the tankers that got hit were already on its list.

tag:chokepointdata.com,2026:analysis/2026-09-30-president-alone-again 2026-09-30T20:37:00Z

Four of the nine presidential statements in this seven-month record arrived on Wednesday morning, and the Revolutionary Guard, the army, the Majlis and the foreign ministry said nothing at all.

tag:chokepointdata.com,2026:analysis/2026-09-29-conditions-changed-owner 2026-09-29T20:36:00Z

Twenty-seven hours after Tehran's wire reported Washington had rejected the seven-day plan, the foreign minister moved the terms for reopening the strait from the council that set them to the Leader.

tag:chokepointdata.com,2026:analysis/2026-09-28-price-changed-sides 2026-09-28T21:46:00Z

Iran's parliament speaker now answers American denials by pointing at crude's war premium, which at the last settled close was worth 65 cents on the dollar April paid.

tag:chokepointdata.com,2026:analysis/2026-09-27-first-clock-on-reopening 2026-09-27T19:42:00Z

Tehran has put a number of days on the strait four times in 278 recorded statements, and every one was a deadline for withdrawing something. Saturday's seven-day plan is the first lead time.

tag:chokepointdata.com,2026:analysis/2026-09-25-red-sea-dead-end 2026-09-25T20:00:00Z

Bab el-Mandeb has printed the ten lowest weeks in seven years of records, all of them since 5 August — and Suez, the same route's other end, has not moved at all.

tag:chokepointdata.com,2026:analysis/2026-09-24-slide-without-a-deal 2026-09-24T19:57:00Z

Five lower closes running, 130.80 down to 114.89 - the longest run of selling since the week the Islamabad Memorandum was signed, and the first with no de-escalation anywhere in it.

tag:chokepointdata.com,2026:analysis/2026-09-23-bill-went-up 2026-09-23T19:37:00Z

The security council put the bill for reopening the strait at seven conditions; every earlier count in this record was smaller than the one before it.

tag:chokepointdata.com,2026:event/2026-09-22-saudi-east-west-pipeline-restarts-at-reduced-rates-sources-s 2026-09-22T12:00:00Z

Three sources told Reuters on Tuesday 22 September that Saudi Arabia had restarted the East-West pipeline and could resume crude exports from Yanbu later that day, two of them saying it was pumping at a low rate; a security source said a full restart could take six to eight weeks. Three of the line's pumping stations were damaged in the September attack, according to satellite imagery and industry sources. JMIC reported that Yanbu and Al Muajjiz crude loadings resumed from about 27–29 September, running well below the pre-attack rate. [Brent next close -1.1% | +7d -1.9% | transits 3.1 -> 3.4/day]

tag:chokepointdata.com,2026:analysis/2026-09-21-army-claimed-one 2026-09-21T20:25:00Z

Across 250 recorded statements the Revolutionary Guard has owned every Iranian action in the strait. Two items an hour apart on Sunday evening gave one to the regular Army.

tag:chokepointdata.com,2026:analysis/2026-09-20-billion-barrel-claim 2026-09-20T18:38:00Z

The figure Tehran's wire attributes to the CENTCOM commander implies Hormuz ran at its full pre-crisis rate; the tanker capacity independently counted through it is one percent of that.

tag:chokepointdata.com,2026:analysis/2026-09-19-strait-stopped-changing 2026-09-19T18:38:00Z

Tehran's wire says crude is climbing because Hormuz traffic is falling. On this site's count the traffic stopped falling on 14 August, and the price has risen 42 percent since.

tag:chokepointdata.com,2026:analysis/2026-09-18-named-the-ship 2026-09-18T19:02:00Z

Ten times since 18 August, Tehran's wire reported a ship struck in the strait and named nobody. This morning the IRGC Navy named the Togo-flagged Trend and said it was stopped for illegal transit.

tag:chokepointdata.com,2026:analysis/2026-09-17-price-went-unmentioned 2026-09-17T19:45:00Z

He wrote that prices were tumbling on 23 June. Brent has risen 73 percent since, and in twenty-two Hormuz posts he has not named a price again.

tag:chokepointdata.com,2026:analysis/2026-09-16-cleared-lane-burning-tankers 2026-09-16T19:40:00Z

Two supertankers in a fortnight, both reported exploding on the southern route the Joint Maritime Information Center called clear in June - the route Iran calls unauthorised.

tag:chokepointdata.com,2026:analysis/2026-09-15-table-that-did-not-convene 2026-09-15T19:39:00Z

Iran convened the Gulf's littoral states to manage the strait on Friday; Oman called the meeting off fifty-three hours later, and Tehran says the region itself asked for the delay.

tag:chokepointdata.com,2026:analysis/2026-09-13-deal-that-opens-nothing 2026-09-13T18:42:00Z

Pezeshkian said on Sunday he plans to sign a navigation agreement in Muscat; his foreign minister spent the day telling all three state agencies it does not mean reopening the strait.

tag:chokepointdata.com,2026:analysis/2026-09-12-table-washington-is-not-at 2026-09-12T18:16:00Z

Days after calling an American signature the only route to reopening Hormuz, Tehran convened the Gulf's littoral states to manage the strait — a body its wire had not named since the memorandum.

tag:chokepointdata.com,2026:analysis/2026-09-11-nobody-sold-it 2026-09-11T19:07:00Z

Twenty-two percent in seven sessions with no down day among them — the only week in the crisis's 133 trading days that nobody sold into.

tag:chokepointdata.com,2026:event/2026-09-11-saudi-arabia-shuts-east-west-pipeline-after-drone-attacks-it 2026-09-11T12:00:00Z

Saudi Arabia said on Friday 11 September that it had shut the East-West crude pipeline to the Red Sea as a precaution after drones struck it in the Riyadh and Medina regions on Thursday 10 September, causing fires, damage and some injuries. The foreign ministry said the drones were launched from Iraq and that the kingdom would not retaliate for now at the request of Iraq's prime minister; Iraq said the attack came from Maysan province and dismissed the local operations commander. The pipeline, with a stated capacity of 7 million barrels a day, had been carrying crude to Yanbu to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. [Brent next close -2.4% | +7d -1.1% | transits 4.1 -> 3.7/day]

tag:chokepointdata.com,2026:event/2026-09-11-houthis-seize-perim-island-gaining-positions-on-both-bab-el- 2026-09-11T12:00:00Z

Houthi forces took Perim (Mayun) island in the Bab el-Mandeb strait on Friday 11 September after government forces withdrew, two Yemeni government sources told CNN, and advanced on the coastal town of Dhubab. A Houthi military spokesman said navigation through the strait remained 'safe for all' except Saudi vessels. CNN reported that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had urged President Trump on 10 September to strike the Houthis and that Trump did not agree. JMIC later assessed that the Houthis held Mocha, Dhubab, Mayun/Perim, Zuqar and the Hanish islands, 'commanding both Bab el-Mandeb channels after the 10–12 September seizures'. [Brent next close -2.4% | +7d -1.1% | transits 4.1 -> 3.7/day]

tag:chokepointdata.com,2026:analysis/2026-09-10-four-machines-no-crew 2026-09-10T19:06:00Z

In its first 73 recorded attacks Iran hit American military targets twice, both fixed bases on the ground; since 31 August its wire has claimed four more, and every one of them is unmanned.

tag:chokepointdata.com,2026:analysis/2026-09-09-allies-clause-gets-a-name 2026-09-09T19:13:00Z

Tehran's rule has always been 'the US, Israel and their allies' — a category it never once filled in. Two items 89 minutes apart on 7 September filled it in with South Korea.

tag:chokepointdata.com,2026:analysis/2026-09-08-price-down-to-one-item 2026-09-08T19:25:00Z

After eight days in which no item on Tehran's wire mentioned a deal, Iran's terms for reopening the strait are a single condition: that Washington go back to the memorandum Iran suspended on 18 July.

tag:chokepointdata.com,2026:event/2026-09-08-houthi-strikes-on-southern-saudi-cities-set-oil-sites-ablaze 2026-09-08T12:00:00Z

Houthi missiles and drones hit Abha, Jazan, Najran and Khamis Mushait early on Tuesday 8 September local time (UTC+3); Saudi-led coalition spokesman Turki al-Malki said 73 people were wounded. Saudi Arabia's Energy Ministry said the attacks caused fires at several oil facilities and utilities in the south and that operations there were temporarily suspended. Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree said the group targeted Aramco facilities in Najran and Abha, the Jazan industrial city and King Khalid Air Base in response to Saudi air strikes in Yemen; the coalition said it would respond. [Brent next close +1.6% | +7d +25.2% | transits 3.4 -> 4.9/day]

tag:chokepointdata.com,2026:analysis/2026-09-06-first-shot-no-crew 2026-09-06T18:12:00Z

Iran had gone 73 recorded attacks without once targeting an American ship. The IRGC says it has now hit one, and that it was remotely operated.

tag:chokepointdata.com,2026:analysis/2026-09-05-blockade-moved-to-the-berth 2026-09-05T18:04:00Z

The last US strike on an Iranian hull in this record was 8 May; the eight since hit Gambian, Palauan and Panamanian ships. Tehran says Saturday's hit an Iranian tanker at its loading terminal.

tag:chokepointdata.com,2026:analysis/2026-09-04-one-hormuz-channel-left 2026-09-04T19:03:00Z

Deals, ship strikes and the wire have all stopped moving Brent. The ten closes that priced a US airstrike near the strait moved a median 6.3%, and the newest of them is 1 September.

tag:chokepointdata.com,2026:analysis/2026-09-03-all-clear-fifteen-hours 2026-09-03T19:18:00Z

This site put a five-day half-life on the next American all-clear on Hormuz mines. The 1 September one was contradicted in fifteen hours, before any Brent close could price it.

tag:chokepointdata.com,2026:analysis/2026-09-02-both-ends-went-quiet 2026-09-02T19:23:00Z

Tehran's wire has not mentioned the Oman corridor in any of the fifteen Hormuz items published since the strikes resumed, and the president spent the same days saying he no longer wants a deal.

tag:chokepointdata.com,2026:analysis/2026-09-01-bridge-rule-never-fired 2026-09-01T19:24:00Z

The 22 July rule promised one bridge or power plant for every ship Iran shoots at in Hormuz. Six crossings later, tonight's strike announcement names mines and a base in Jordan instead.

tag:chokepointdata.com,2026:event/2026-09-01-us-launches-strike-wave-on-southern-iran-iran-fires-at-us-ba 2026-09-01T12:00:00Z

CENTCOM said US forces began striking IRGC targets in southern Iran around midday US Eastern time, including air defence, radar, maritime, mine-laying and communications sites, citing attempted IRGC attacks on shipping and US troops; Trump called the strikes 'large and powerful'. Iranian officials said the strikes killed at least 11 people, including guests at a wedding in Kuhestak, and the US denied targeting civilians. Iran fired missiles and drones at US sites in Jordan, Bahrain and Iraq, and Jordan said it intercepted 10 of 13 missiles; it was the heaviest US-Iran exchange since late July and followed weeks in which Washington had relied on sanctions. [Brent next close +7.0% | +7d +18.2% | transits 4.3 -> 3.4/day]

tag:chokepointdata.com,2026:analysis/2026-08-31-all-clear-five-days 2026-08-31T21:21:00Z

Washington said every mine was gone from Hormuz and promised to destroy anything laying new ones. The first ship-versus-mine report in this record arrived five days and fourteen hours later.

tag:chokepointdata.com,2026:analysis/2026-08-29-sixty-free-days 2026-08-29T19:28:00Z

The Islamabad memorandum promised no charge for sixty days only, and an Iranian administration of the strait after that - which is the thing Tehran has spent this week finishing.

tag:chokepointdata.com,2026:event/2026-08-28-centcom-declares-hormuz-international-shipping-lanes-free-of 2026-08-28T00:21:00Z

CENTCOM commander Adm. Brad Cooper said in a video posted on X that US forces had cleared sea mines laid by the IRGC from the strait's internationally recognised transit routes and that 'international shipping lanes are open'; he gave no count of mines removed. Trump had said on 25 August that the Navy told him all mines in the strait's international waters were removed or detonated. Allies privately told Bloomberg the strait was likely still mined, and Iran's deputy foreign minister said only Iran knew where its mines were. The post went up at about 8:20 pm US Eastern time on 27 August. [Brent next close -0.5% | +7d +13.4% | transits 4.0 -> 4.0/day]

tag:chokepointdata.com,2026:analysis/2026-08-26-mines-two-answers 2026-08-26T16:55:00Z

The all-clear has now been issued twice in eight days, and the only independent count on the record still says roughly 80 mines sit in the main channel.

tag:chokepointdata.com,2026:analysis/2026-08-24-kerch-second-zero 2026-08-24T13:06:00Z

Russia closed the Kerch Strait on 10 July; thirteen days later its 7-day average fell below one transit. Hormuz took fifteen.

tag:chokepointdata.com,2026:analysis/2026-08-21-irans-asking-price 2026-08-21T16:43:00Z

Tehran's published terms for reopening the strait have gone from five demands to three Washington could grant on its own — while the year-end reopening market halved to a record low.

tag:chokepointdata.com,2026:analysis/2026-08-20-brent-ignored-the-standstill 2026-08-20T16:45:00Z

Three ADNOC tankers hit in 48 hours and Hormuz traffic at a standstill moved Brent 0.01% — the smallest reaction any of the crisis's 26 tier-one events has drawn.

tag:chokepointdata.com,2026:analysis/2026-08-20-subset-traded-dearer-than-the-set 2026-08-20T12:40:00Z

For 43 of the 50 days both traded before the closure, Kalshi's Hormuz contract closed above the Polymarket contract that strictly contains it — a bound each venue keeps on its own book.

tag:chokepointdata.com,2026:analysis/2026-08-18-hormuz-one-owner 2026-08-18T16:44:00Z

All four vessels struck inside the strait this month belong to Abu Dhabi's national oil company — after none of the crisis's first 24 attacks in Hormuz did.

tag:chokepointdata.com,2026:analysis/two-closures-one-bypass 2026-08-18T12:00:00Z

Bab el-Mandeb's traffic reappeared at the Cape of Good Hope — 98.1% of it. Hormuz's traffic reappeared nowhere.

tag:chokepointdata.com,2026:analysis/2026-08-17-round-trip-reopening-odds 2026-08-17T16:36:00Z

Brent moved +0.21% on the 5 August deal-imminent report — the 6th percentile of crisis days. Polymarket’s year-end leg moved 14 points, and printed an all-time low of 33.5% today.

tag:chokepointdata.com,2026:analysis/words-versus-deeds 2026-08-17T12:00:00Z

Attack days move Brent ±3.4% — empty days move ±2.66%. No gap in size survives the arithmetic.

tag:chokepointdata.com,2026:analysis/market-stopped-pricing-peace 2026-08-16T12:00:00Z

Each successive deal moved oil less: -11.6% → -0.2% by the signed memorandum.

tag:chokepointdata.com,2026:analysis/closure-declarations 2026-08-16T12:00:00Z

5 declarations; the first and last both ~99th-percentile jumps.

tag:chokepointdata.com,2026:analysis/fed-day-control-group 2026-08-16T12:00:00Z

60 scheduled FOMC days: median ±1.27% vs ±1.28% on ordinary days.

tag:chokepointdata.com,2026:analysis/prediction-market-scoreboard 2026-08-16T12:00:00Z

The crowd underpriced the closure, then overpriced all 13 reopenings — and beat “nothing ever changes” by -0.0079.

tag:chokepointdata.com,2026:event/2026-08-14-adnoc-tankers-hit-by-drones-disclosed-hormuz-transit-near-st 2026-08-14T12:00:00Z

UKMTO and ADNOC disclosed that the ADNOC-operated tankers Navig8 Messi (Singapore-flagged) and Tarif (Liberia-flagged) were struck by drones on the evening of 13 August during strait transits, sustaining minor damage with all crew safe; the UAE blamed Iran and called the attacks a flagrant violation. Transit through the strait was reported near a standstill on Friday 14 August as the US said it could maintain its naval blockade of Iran indefinitely and warned of stepped-up economic pressure. [Brent next close -0.0% | +7d +5.3% | transits 5.9 -> 4.3/day]

tag:chokepointdata.com,2026:event/2026-08-05-us-iran-and-oman-reported-close-to-deal-to-reopen-hormuz 2026-08-05T12:00:00Z

Axios reported the US was nearing an Oman-mediated deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz; Trump said an agreement could come within days and Treasury Secretary Bessent called a deal imminent. Iran said it and Oman had agreed the geographic coordinates of a shipping arrangement routing inbound traffic through Iranian waters and outbound traffic through Omani waters under a 60-day framework. [Brent next close +0.2% | +7d +7.0% | transits 5.7 -> 5.6/day]

tag:chokepointdata.com,2026:event/2026-07-26-us-and-iran-pause-strikes-for-second-straight-day 2026-07-26T12:00:00Z

After 13 consecutive nights of US airstrikes, the Pentagon halted attacks late on 24 July, with no strikes reported on 25-26 July; a senior Iranian official said Iran would hold fire as long as the US pause continued, and Trump said the US stopped at Iran's request while warning strikes would resume without a new deal. No formal ceasefire was signed; the pause solidified over a weekend, before the next market open. [Brent next close -8.5% | +7d -3.3% | transits 3.7 -> 5.3/day]

tag:chokepointdata.com,2026:event/2026-07-22-houthis-strike-two-saudi-tankers-in-red-sea-opening-second-f 2026-07-22T12:00:00Z

Yemen's Houthis announced on Wednesday 22 July that they had attacked the Saudi oil tankers Encelia and Layla in the Red Sea with ballistic and cruise missiles and drones, the first strikes since the group declared a naval blockade of Saudi-linked shipping on 20 July. Saudi state media confirmed a fire at the bow of the Encelia with all crew safe; the reported attack on the Bahri VLCC Layla was not independently confirmed. The next day, President Trump said the US would hold Iran responsible for future Houthi attacks. [Brent next close +0.3% | +7d -2.0% | transits 5.3 -> 3.4/day]

tag:chokepointdata.com,2026:event/2026-07-14-us-naval-blockade-of-all-iranian-ports-takes-effect 2026-07-14T20:00:00Z

The US naval blockade of all Iranian ports and coastal areas took effect at 20:00 UTC on 14 July (4pm ET; midnight 15 July Gulf time), interdicting all vessels bound for or departing Iranian ports while permitting neutral transit of the strait to non-Iranian destinations. CENTCOM had announced the blockade a day earlier, on 13 July. More than 20 US warships were reported operating in the region to enforce it. [Brent next close -0.7% | +7d +12.5% | transits 9.3 -> 5.3/day]

tag:chokepointdata.com,2026:event/2026-07-12-iran-declares-strait-of-hormuz-closed-until-further-notice 2026-07-12T12:00:00Z

Hours after the IRGC struck the container ship GFS Galaxy (22:40 UTC on 11 July; engine-room fire, crew abandoned ship, one crew member missing and later confirmed dead), Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed until further notice, its first formal closure declaration of the conflict. US wire datelines (Bloomberg, Axios) read 11 July (US evening); in UTC the declaration came around or shortly after midnight into 12 July. Either way it landed on a weekend, after markets had closed for the week. [Brent next close +9.8% | +7d +14.4% | transits 16.6 -> 6.3/day]

tag:chokepointdata.com,2026:event/2026-07-08-trump-declares-ceasefire-with-iran-over-new-wave-of-us-strik 2026-07-08T12:00:00Z

At the NATO summit in Ankara, President Trump declared the June ceasefire with Iran over, citing the strait ship attacks, and the US military carried out a second wave of strikes on 90 Iranian military targets along the coastline, per CENTCOM. Air-defence sirens sounded in Bahrain and Kuwait as incoming Iranian missiles and drones were engaged; broader Iranian strikes on US bases in the Gulf followed on 9 July. [Brent next close +6.6% | +7d +15.7% | transits 24.4 -> 9.3/day]

tag:chokepointdata.com,2026:event/2026-07-07-iran-strikes-three-commercial-ships-in-hormuz-qatari-lng-tan 2026-07-07T12:00:00Z

Iranian missiles struck three commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz between the night of 6 July and the morning of 7 July, the first major breach of the interim truce. The Qatari LNG carrier Al Rekayyat suffered a port-side engine-room fire and was evacuated, and a Saudi supertanker believed to be the Wedyan was also hit; two vessels sustained significant damage with no casualties, and Qatar publicly blamed Iran. [Brent next close +3.2% | +7d +20.3% | transits 23.0 -> 11.9/day]